Compression failure due to grain orientation is mathematically plausible, as any other orientations than one like in plain sawn lumber would bring out the average of all layers, instead of aggravating the weakness of a certain weakest layer. Still, even that layer is not devoid of compressive strength, and in self-bows all sections are not compressed equally. The failure would probably occur only at the most compressed section and especially when the stave is not well seasoned. But as noted, this has never been a major issue with staves. I vaguely remember just one such possible occurrence out of dozens of self-bows and we need to listen to the person who is actually experiencing it now. I would be really surprised to see it happen even after the heat treating of the belly. But the exposed weakest layer can be paper thin sometimes. In that case, we can probably just sand it out with no ill effects.