You don't need to pin your splice.
I sometimes clean up a small glue gap and drive in little splints of veneer with more glue, which works well.
If it's an actual RECURVE, where the string will lay against the limb while strung, leave it STATIC. If it's a reflexed tip, it can work into the reflex. Yours is a pretty sharp bend, not huge, angle, but all in one spot, so I don't know what to advise, except to say it isn't taking up much of the limb length, so your plan is pretty good. Run the bend right up to the base of the curve, but be careful because it's easy to create a hinge there (on the belly bump left where the angle is) just by being careless. You can get it too thin, and it won't show until you get it to several inches of draw. Just sneak up on it.
"This gets me thinking... how can one tell if a given tip angle will be a true recurve... as in whether the string will touch the belly or not? There must be a design principle that uses geometry to predict what recurve angle/ length will result in string-on-belly." I just sketch them out in miniature on graph paper with a ruler and compass, but your angle is too low for a"real" recurve, just to my eye.
A tillering gizmo is a good idea, but remember to let the front profile tell you how to tiller. Since the sides are parallel a long way out, you should bend the outer limb below the recurve more than near the handle. Parallel sides mean thickness taper is appropriate.
1.5" is fine, but, yes, with a bamboo back and black locust, I would have gone wider (if I had the material) and trapped the limb. But, it's fine. Good tiller makes good bows.