IMO, the best way to see where the set is coming from is to look in a mirror.
Nail on it's proverbial head!
I always draw the bows side profile onto my tillering board before even starting tillering. It really, really helps in pinning down where the set is.
I agree 1/16th ain't much but it's an indicator of what will happen further on down the process for certain.
I agree that just because the wood is at equilibrium doesn't mean it's ready to make a bow.
EMC is determined by a combination of temperature and relative humidity. For me, at the moment EMC is about 18%..... = not good! Lot's of set!
Try hotboxing it for a few days. Weigh it accurately before it goes into the box then keep weighing it evry day or so to see whats going on.